Another season, another agonizing loss to the Edmonton Oilers in the First Round for the LA Kings.
In 2022, LA lost in Game 7 of the First Round to Edmonton. In 2023, LA lost in Game 6 of the First Round to Edmonton. Now, in 2024, LA lost in Game 5 of the First Round to Edmonton. It is frustrating to lose year after year to the same team in the playoffs (as a Capitals fan, I can relate). However, to be the best, a team needs to be able to beat the best, even if that means facing that team much earlier than they would otherwise want to. That puts the Kings in an interesting position and begs one simple question: are they good enough to beat the best?
Looking at the roster construction of recent Stanley Cup Champion illustrates that the winning teams not only have multiples of some of the best players in the world, but have those players during the peaks of their careers:
2015 Blackhawks: Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith
2016 Penguins: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang
2017 Penguins: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Marc-Andre Fleury
2018 Capitals: Alexander Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson, Braden Holtby
2019 Blues: Ryan O’Reilly, Alex Pietrangelo, Vladimir Tarasenko
2020 Lightning: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Brayden Point
2021 Lightning: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Brayden Point
2022 Avalanche: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar
2023 Golden Knights: Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Jonathan Marchessault
The NHL is a copycat league, and when building a Stanley Cup contender, teams almost always try to recreate the blue print of the most recent champion. These rosters show that a team needs genuine superstars and gamebreakers, particularly at forward. As constructed, can the Los Angeles Kings match the talent of these stars?
There was a time when Drew Doughty and Anze Kopitar would have featured as the type of superstar core players on that list. But, at 34 and 36 years old, respectively, the decline has already begun and they are not getting any younger. The Kings’ next best players are Adrian Kempe, Kevin Fiala, Quinton Byfield, and Trevor Moore. They are extremely talented players, but do not match up with elite divisional foes like Eichel, Leon Draisaitl, or Connor McDavid. In the new NHL, speed and skill are everything, and the best teams are loaded with top tier talent. As an example, just look at the teams finishing near the top of their divisions this season:
Edmonton: McDavid, Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard
Colorado: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar
Rangers: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad
Carolina: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Jake Guentzel, Jaccob Slavin
Dallas: Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen, Roope Hintz
Vancouver: Elias Pettersson, JT Miller, Quinn Hughes,
Right now, LA just can’t compete with that with these collections of star players. Further, the Kings are short on salary cap space and lack the draft pick and prospect abundance needed to acquire that caliber of top tier, elite players by trade. That’s to say nothing of the major renovations that are still needed in LA’s net before next year.
How does one build a contender like these other teams with what LA has? The answer: they don’t. So, if they’re unable to directly copy this formula, the only two options are to rebuild or think outside the box in terms of roster construction.
I don’t see a major rebuild happening in LA…at least, not yet. LA already tried rebuilding in the late 2010s, but changed course to go on a few final playoff runs with Kopitar and Doughty. The fruits of those years yielded useful, but far from elite players in Byfield (second overall in 2020) and Alex Turcotte (fifth overall in 2019).
If LA doesn’t rebuild, LA’s best option is to think outside the box. The Kings cannot just model themselves on recent Stanley Cup champions. They don’t have many playoff runs left with Kopitar and Doughty, have holes to fix, and are limited on cap space, so they need to find a way to put themselves in the best position to go on a deep run with those considerations in mind. After all, any hockey fan will tell you that the NHL playoffs are unpredictable, and oftentimes just making it to playoffs can give a team a chance to succeed. Plenty of teams make seemingly improbable Stanley Cup runs as underdogs, notably the 2017 Golden Knights, but one team in particular stands out as a blueprint for the LA Kings: the 2021 Montreal Canadiens.
Travelling back in time three years, the 2021 Montreal Canadiens became the ultimate underdog story, but proved that skill, good defense, and elite goaltending could make up for other deficiencies. That team snuck in under the radar and technically would not have even made the playoffs if not for divisional realignment associated with COVID-19. But once they got to the postseason, they went on a deep run that seemed impossible during the last week of the regular season, beating a juggernaut in the Vegas Golden Knights and two tough early opponents in the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Winnipeg Jets. The Canadiens did so by focusing on two-way play, good defense, and unbelievable goaltending. This is a blueprint that LA can emulate.
First, LA has notable two-way forwards in Kopitar, Philip Danault, and Kevin Fiala. Danault was actually on that 2021 Canadiens team and knows better than any other King how to play this system. Upfront, the Canadiens were extremely deep and could run four lines. By comparison, LA has a solid forward group filled with good two-way players, and good potential role players in the AHL, leaving them only a few bottom six forwards away from recreating this success. They should lean into the strengths of this group and enhance it. Move on from players who don’t fit that mold or who aren’t willing to, like P.L. Dubois, and get a coach who can adequately run a mix of defense and speed. This system plays to the strengths of fast skaters like Quinton Byfield, Adrian Kempe, and Trevor Moore.
Montreal also heavily relied on a solid defensive core comprised of Shea Weber, Jeff Petry, Ben Chiarot, Joel Edmundson, Erik Gustafsson, Brett Kulak, and a young Alexander Romanov to shut down opposing forward units. While most of these defenders severely declined or suffered severe injuries since 2021, this unit was incredibly formidable at the time. LA also has the makings of a quality defensive unit with Doughty, Vladislav Gavrikov, Mikey Anderson, Jordan Spence, and Brandt Clarke. That’s assuming they don’t bring back Matt Roy, who played well last year. In Game 4 against the Oilers, the Kings kept the high powered Edmonton Oilers’ offense to a single goal with excellent boxouts, physicality, and denied zone entries. There’s no reason why they cannot replicate that for an entire playoff run with the right tinkering and guidance.
The last major piece is goaltending. The 2021 Montreal Canadiens had Carey Price, one of the best goalies of his generation. During the 2021 playoffs, Price was even better, and played a crucial role in the Canadiens’ run to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Any Kings fan can attest that goaltending has been an Achilles heel for LA since the decline of Jonathan Quick. Deploying Joonas Korpisalo, Pheonix Copley, Cal Petersen, and Cam Talbot failed, and solidifying the position is a major objective of this offseason. Yet, the years of failing to solve this issue showcase why LA needs to go big and actually solve the problem. Montreal had Price. To change this model, LA needs to make a splash and get one of the best goalies in the league.
While this is easier said than done, several teams with these types of goalies are in a unique scenario that make obtaining such a goaltender realistic. For example, Juuse Saros could be an option from the Nashville Predators. Nashville is a middling team, caught between a rebuild and making the wild card spot. they have stated that they would at least consider a trade for the right offer. Particularly so when their star goalie prospect, Yaroslav Askarov, is about to be NHL ready and showed promise in a limited sample size this season.
The New York Islanders also have a goalie controversy brewing that could make Ilya Sorokin available. Sorokin starts a new 8 year contract at $8.25 million AAV next season, and is 28 years old, but the Islanders already have long-time 1B goalie Semyon Varlamov, who outplayed Sorokin this season. The Islanders already gave Varlamov a 4 year, $2.75 million AAV contract, and he will be around for the foreseeable future. That is a lot of money to commit to two goalies. While Sorokin struggled this season, particularly after NYI brought in Patrick Roy as their new coach, he is just one season removed from being a Vezina finalist for best NHL goalie, and has an otherwise solid track record of being a top goalie in the NHL and Russia’s Kontinental Hockey League. With the Islanders against the salary cap, NYI’s window beginning to close, and Sorokin’s massive extension beginning next year, it stands to reason that New York would have to at least entertain the idea of moving Sorokin for the right pieces, especially when the Islanders seem set in goal with Varlamov.
The Kings can also look to the Boston Bruins for a goalie. Boston likely will also have to move on from either Jeremy Swayman or Linus Ullmark for salary cap reasons. Reports circulated that LA tried to acquire Ullmark during the season, but he allegedly refused to waive his no trade clause to move to LA. Would he be open to a move to it if Boston fails to win the Stanley Cup again? Or if Swayman was given the 1A goalie position going forward? Swayman has already taken the reigns during this year’s playoffs and is statistically the most valuable player among all playoff teams as of the end of the first round. It doesn’t sound like Swayman will be a backup for much longer.
For LA, this plan is not impossible to achieve since the Kings have assets to get these trades done without losing their current depth. A buyout of Dubois now would go a long way to making cap space, since under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, LA only needs to pay 1/3 of his contract because he only 25 years old. Moreover, even after the Dubois trade, LA still has many assets, including: its first round pick this year and next year, second round pick next year, Arthur Kaliev who could use a change of scenery, Akil Thomas and Samuel Fagemo who are playing well in the AHL, Erik Portillo who is an intriguing goaltending prospect, 2023 second round pick Jakub Dvorak, a reclamation project in former top-five pick Alex Turcotte, and 2022 second round pick Jack Hughes as options. It stands to reason that a package consisting of some combination of these players and picks would be enticing to Nashville, NYI, or Boston.
This plan would not guarantee that LA wins the Stanley Cup. But, as an alternative to a full rebuild, this is the best way for LA to maximize what they have left in Kopitar and Doughty and get out of the first-round rut that they cannot seem to escape. Making the playoffs in the Pacific Division will be just as hard during the next few years, and there are high odds that LA will have to play Vegas or Edmonton, or if LA makes it as a wildcard team, Dallas or Colorado, in the first round. Despite the challenges, the foundational pieces for success are there, and LA has a chance to be creative, building towards the playoffs while fixing their weaknesses and playing to their strengths. What they are doing has not been working, so why not try mixing it up?
The Hat Trick Herald 