On July 3, 2026, the Philadelphia Flyers initiated a now legendary offer sheet to Ducks center Leo Carlsson that he unsurprisingly signed. Under the terms of the NHL’s collective bargaining agreement, Anaheim has until July 10 to match the contract exactly or allow Philadelphia to “steal” him in exchange for four original Flyers 1st round draft picks.
Carlsson’s Deal Is a Nightmare for Anaheim
The deal is the most player friendly deal ever seen in an NHL contract. It’s five years in length (of a maximum of seven), and counts for $18 million per year in salary cap structure, which makes Leo Carlsson the highest paid player in the National Hockey League.
The deal is almost entirely signing bonus, which is required to be paid during the summer (rather than spread throughout the season). Year One pays a $19.95 million signing bonus immediately, followed by an $18 million signing bonus less than 365 days later. In the three subsequent years, the signing bonus never goes below $15 million per season. That’s already a heavy financial strain for a team like the Ducks, who are adverse to paying any signing bonuses to its players. But the money is just the beginning.
Arguably, the term is the most brutal aspect of the deal, given the procedure governing players’ rights in the NHL. When NHL teams secure a player, say, for example, through the NHL Entry Draft (as the Ducks did with Carlsson), they have the player’s exclusive rights for a set period of time. This period of time is called Restricted Free Agency, meaning that when the player’s entry-level contract expires, the player has to re-sign with the team who has its rights (except for the offer sheet in certain instances) for seven total seasons or until the player reaches the age of 27.
Carlsson, who is currently 21 years of age, has already played three NHL seasons, meaning Anaheim owns his rights for four more years, after which he becomes an Unrestricted Free Agent and is free to sign with any team in the league with no compensation going back to Anaheim. Normally, a team tries to sign core pieces or franchise cornerstones to lengthy NHL deals to minimize the risk that they will lose the player once they become an Unrestricted Free Agent, and the player enters the “prime” of their career. For players of Carlsson’s caliber, this rarely, if ever happens (a similar example being John Tavares leaving the New York Islanders), and any player who wants to leave is usually traded long before their rights expire (see Matthew Tkachuk). By extending a contract for as long as possible, teams essentially lock down the player both now and for a few seasons when they would have otherwise been Unrestricted Free Agents.
Going back to Carlsson’s deal: it is for five years, meaning that it only “buys out” four years when Anaheim would own his rights as a Restricted Free Agent and only one year when he would be an Unrestricted Free Agent. At the end of the deal, Carlsson is free to sign with any team. Even worse, the final year of the deal has a full No Movement Clause, meaning that Carlsson cannot be traded to any other team unless he gives permission.
At the end of the deal, Carlsson will have been paid more than any other current NHL player, will be able to walk away from his team unconditionally, and cannot even be traded in the final year in an attempt to recoup assets, unless he agrees. Fans need only look to the recent power of No Movement Clauses and No Trade Clauses with Brady Tkachuk, Dylan Larkin, or Zach Werenski to see how little leverage this gives the team who owns the contract. For what it’s worth, per Frank Seravalli, “there’s a growing sense Leo doesn’t want to be in Anaheim anymore.”
The Affect of the Contract on the Acquiring Team
For the Flyers, this contract is a no brainer. They desperately need a top tier young center like Carlsson, and are hoping that they can convince him to stay with a team that just made the second round of the NHL Playoffs and a young core full of skilled players. It’s a risk, but even if it goes horribly, it does not set them back too far. Philadelphia has ambitions of making the playoffs every single year and eventually making dep runs. Four first round picks (that they imagine will be in the middle or end of the first round) is a worthy sacrifice for at least five years of Carlsson flanked by Porter Martone, Matvei Michkov, Travis Konecny, or Tyson Foerster. Unless Carlsson massively regresses, checks out, or is injured, this deal is worth its weight in gold, and gives the Flyers something they are desperate to find. There’s a reason to overpay for it.
For Anaheim, accepting the deal is not as clear cut. Barring Philadelphia having a terrible season and finishing with a top draft pick through the lottery (see the 2025 New York Islanders), having four of Philadelphia’s first round picks are unlikely to net them with a player of Carlsson’s caliber without elite scouting and luck. Assuming Philadelphia acquires Carlsson, and assuming they are consistently a playoff team, the Ducks are likely acquiring first round picks from the Flyers that are in the teens or twenties. For more perspective on the players available in that range, one need only look back at four recent drafts of the comparable Winnipeg Jets, whose picks produced the following players:
2022 NHL Entry Draft: Rutger McGroarty at pick #13, with the next two picks being Jonathan Lekkerimaki and Noah Ostlund
2023 NHL Entry Draft: Colby Barlow at pick #18, with the next two picks being Oliver Moore and Eduard Sale
2024 NHL Entry Draft: Liam Greentree at #26 (pick traded to Los Angeles), with the next two picks being Marek Vanacker and Matvei Gridin
2025 NHL Entry Draft: Sascha Boumedienne at pick #28, with the next two picks being Mason West and Joshua Ravensbergen
While those are skilled players, none have the upside or NHL production of Leo Carlsson, and would not replace his production now or in the future. Accepting that return for Carlsson would be a tough pill to swallow.
Ducks General Manager Pat Verbeek stated he would match any offer for Carlsson. But, keeping Carlsson is not straight forward, either. As mentioned, Carlsson becomes the highest paid player, he can leave after five years with no return going to Anaheim, and he has the ability to prevent Anaheim from trading him. Mitch Marner did that last offseason to the Toronto Maple Leafs, forcing them to accept only Nicolas Roy as a return for one of the best playmakers in the league, and causing a rippling effect that ended their Stanley Cup window without massive adjustments.
Keeping Carlsson also adds to an already muddy cap situation for the Ducks. Anaheim still has not signed star winger Cutter Gauthier (a 40 goal scorer who will command quite a raise from his entry level deal) and Anaheim is already paying $34 million of the $104 million cap limit to support players like Chris Kreider, Alex Killorn, Pavel Mintyukov, Ryan Poehling, AJ Greer, and Frank Vatrano. When added to contracts of their other core players like Jackson Lacombe, Troy Terry, and Lukas Dostal, there isn’t much left over. While Kreider and Killorn’s contracts will end at the conclusion of the season, Beckett Sennecke will need a new contract soon, which will use much of that money.
Paying Carlsson $18 million makes it harder to build around him with depth players via trade or signing, and Anaheim already traded much of its NHL-ready home grown talent (Trevor Zegras, Mason MacTavish, and Jamie Drysdale). Keeping Carlsson means requiring prospects Roger McQueen, Nikita Klepov, Lucas Pettersson, and Stian Solberg to play meaningful roles over the next four years while they can still trade Carlsson. If those players fail to develop or fail to reach their ceiling, Carlsson is not obligated to stick around to see if Anaheim can still figure it out. Furthermore, there’s no guarantee that a gamble on Carlsson will pay off, as Anaheim just recently broke its playoff drought and beat a defeated and top-heavy Edmonton Oilers team before losing to the Vegas Golden Knights. While Carlsson was a big part of that run, notching 11 points in 12 games, and looking like a franchise corner stone, that playoff run also showed their lack of scoring depth, as only 10 players scored more than 6 points during the 12 game run, and 2 of the players (John Carlson and Mason MacTavish) are now gone. Anaheim’s defense has also notably declined this offseason with many of their main leaders and shutdown defensemen leaving as free agents. Anaheim is betting on big years from Ian Moore, Tristin Luneau, and Drew Helleson. This is Year One of five. They would have three more to show this team can contend before Carlsson’s No Trade Clause becomes active.
Either way, it’s a difficult choice for Anaheim.
While it’s hard to take a step back after last season, the Ducks need to seriously consider if this is the team they can go all the way with (with these contracts, for better or worse). Is it worth bottoming out for one year to save money to sign Cutter Gauthier long-term, keep developing Moore, Luneau, and Sennecke at a reasonable pace, and hope for a good draft pick in the the 2027 NHL Entry Draft. Alexis Joseph, Carter Meyer, and Milan Sundstrom are going to be top selections in what is projected to be a good draft for centers. Can Anaheim get a good pick? Might someone be willing to trade down if Anaheim started offering some of the Flyers’ picks in addition to their own?
Would another young center suddenly become available with all those extra picks? Robert Thomas, perhaps? Anaheim could offer sheet Adam Fantilli from the Columbus Blue Jackets, who Anaheim fans originally wanted them to draft in 2023 before they took Carlsson. It’s worth thinking about. There’s no easy answer, and matching Leo Carlsson’s deal is not as clear cut as it seems.
In the meantime, the countdown until July 10 keeps ticking.
The Hat Trick Herald 